Tuesday 20 October · 21:00
VfB Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
VfB Stuttgart
11th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.11
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.46 · defence 0.82
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for VfB Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid, at 42%. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, VfB Stuttgart win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Atlético de Madrid win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.76 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.59 for Atlético de Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.76 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.59 for Atlético de Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, VfB Stuttgart wins; above it, Atlético de Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart goals in rows, Atlético de Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in VfB Stuttgart v Atlético de Madrid?
VfB Stuttgart, at 42%. The full split is VfB Stuttgart 42%, draw 22%, Atlético de Madrid 35%.
What is the most likely score in VfB Stuttgart v Atlético de Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 9.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart v Atlético de Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.76 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.59 for Atlético de Madrid.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart v Atlético de Madrid?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet or Atlético de Madrid fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
