Wednesday 21 October · 21:00
Sporting CP – LASK
Sporting CP
3rd · attack 2.13 · defence 0.69
LASK
3rd · attack 1.33 · defence 1.00
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites for Sporting CP – LASK, at 83%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sporting CP win 83% of the time, the draw comes up 11% and LASK win 6%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 3.00 goals for Sporting CP and 0.70 for LASK, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 3.00 for Sporting CP, 0.70 for LASK.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sporting CP wins; above it, LASK wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Sporting CP goals in rows, LASK goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sporting CP v LASK?
Sporting CP, at 83%. The full split is Sporting CP 83%, draw 11%, LASK 6%.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP v LASK?
2–0, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sporting CP v LASK?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 3.00 for Sporting CP and 0.70 for LASK.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP v LASK?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Sporting CP keep a clean sheet or LASK fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
