Wednesday 21 October · 21:00
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig
Real Madrid
4th · attack 1.69 · defence 0.74
RB Leipzig
5th · attack 1.41 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Real Madrid – RB Leipzig, at 58%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Madrid win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and RB Leipzig win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.14 goals for Real Madrid and 1.24 for RB Leipzig, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.14 for Real Madrid, 1.24 for RB Leipzig.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Madrid wins; above it, RB Leipzig wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Real Madrid goals in rows, RB Leipzig goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Madrid v RB Leipzig?
Real Madrid, at 58%. The full split is Real Madrid 58%, draw 20%, RB Leipzig 22%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid v RB Leipzig?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v RB Leipzig?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.14 for Real Madrid and 1.24 for RB Leipzig.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid v RB Leipzig?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet or RB Leipzig fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
