Tuesday 20 October · 21:00
Porto – PSV
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.60
PSV
2nd · attack 2.11 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Porto favourites for Porto – PSV, at 62%. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Porto win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and PSV win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.26 goals for Porto and 1.17 for PSV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.26 for Porto, 1.17 for PSV.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Porto wins; above it, PSV wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Porto goals in rows, PSV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Porto v PSV?
Porto, at 62%. The full split is Porto 62%, draw 19%, PSV 19%.
What is the most likely score in Porto v PSV?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Porto v PSV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.26 for Porto and 1.17 for PSV.
Will both teams score in Porto v PSV?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Porto keep a clean sheet or PSV fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
