Tuesday 20 October · 21:00
Paris Saint Germain – FC Barcelona
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.11 · defence 0.78
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for Paris Saint Germain – FC Barcelona, at 41% — but only 2.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Paris Saint Germain win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and FC Barcelona win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 7.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.86 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.92 for FC Barcelona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time and both teams scoring 72%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.86 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.92 for FC Barcelona.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris Saint Germain wins; above it, FC Barcelona wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Paris Saint Germain goals in rows, FC Barcelona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris Saint Germain v FC Barcelona?
FC Barcelona, at 41%. The full split is Paris Saint Germain 39%, draw 21%, FC Barcelona 41%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain v FC Barcelona?
1–1, which comes up in 7.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris Saint Germain v FC Barcelona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 89% of the time. Expected goals are 1.86 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.92 for FC Barcelona.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain v FC Barcelona?
Both teams score in 72% of simulations. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet or FC Barcelona fail to score in the remaining 28%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
