Tuesday 20 October · 21:00
Manchester City – AEK Athens
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.59 · defence 0.79
AEK Athens
th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Manchester City – AEK Athens, at 85%. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester City win 85% of the time, the draw comes up 10% and AEK Athens win 4%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.87 goals for Manchester City and 0.52 for AEK Athens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 38%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.87 for Manchester City, 0.52 for AEK Athens.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester City wins; above it, AEK Athens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| 1 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 3 | 1 |
Manchester City goals in rows, AEK Athens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester City v AEK Athens?
Manchester City, at 85%. The full split is Manchester City 85%, draw 10%, AEK Athens 4%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City v AEK Athens?
2–0, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester City v AEK Athens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.87 for Manchester City and 0.52 for AEK Athens.
Will both teams score in Manchester City v AEK Athens?
Both teams score in 38% of simulations. Manchester City keep a clean sheet or AEK Athens fail to score in the remaining 62%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
