Wednesday 21 October · 18:45
LOSC Lille – Galatasaray
LOSC Lille
2nd · attack 1.17 · defence 0.85
Galatasaray
1st · attack 1.69 · defence 0.99
Our model makes LOSC Lille favourites for LOSC Lille – Galatasaray, at 59%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, LOSC Lille win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Galatasaray win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.02 goals for LOSC Lille and 1.10 for Galatasaray, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.02 for LOSC Lille, 1.10 for Galatasaray.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, LOSC Lille wins; above it, Galatasaray wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
LOSC Lille goals in rows, Galatasaray goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in LOSC Lille v Galatasaray?
LOSC Lille, at 59%. The full split is LOSC Lille 59%, draw 21%, Galatasaray 21%.
What is the most likely score in LOSC Lille v Galatasaray?
2–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in LOSC Lille v Galatasaray?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 2.02 for LOSC Lille and 1.10 for Galatasaray.
Will both teams score in LOSC Lille v Galatasaray?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. LOSC Lille keep a clean sheet or Galatasaray fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
