Tuesday 20 October · 21:00
Liverpool – Villarreal
Liverpool
9th · attack 1.25 · defence 1.07
Villarreal
12th · attack 1.48 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for Liverpool – Villarreal, at 58%. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Liverpool win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Villarreal win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.15 goals for Liverpool and 1.25 for Villarreal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.15 for Liverpool, 1.25 for Villarreal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Liverpool wins; above it, Villarreal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Liverpool goals in rows, Villarreal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Liverpool v Villarreal?
Liverpool, at 58%. The full split is Liverpool 58%, draw 20%, Villarreal 22%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool v Villarreal?
2–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Villarreal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.15 for Liverpool and 1.25 for Villarreal.
Will both teams score in Liverpool v Villarreal?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet or Villarreal fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
