Wednesday 21 October · 21:00
Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter
1st · attack 1.98 · defence 0.89
Shakhtar Donetsk
th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Inter favourites for Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk, at 79%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Inter win 79% of the time, the draw comes up 12% and Shakhtar Donetsk win 9%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 9.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.96 goals for Inter and 0.92 for Shakhtar Donetsk, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 2.96 for Inter, 0.92 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Inter wins; above it, Shakhtar Donetsk wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Inter goals in rows, Shakhtar Donetsk goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inter, at 79%. The full split is Inter 79%, draw 12%, Shakhtar Donetsk 9%.
What is the most likely score in Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk?
2–0, which comes up in 9.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.96 for Inter and 0.92 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Will both teams score in Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Inter keep a clean sheet or Shakhtar Donetsk fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
