Tuesday 20 October · 18:45
Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
Fenerbahçe
4th · attack 1.79 · defence 0.92
Slavia Praha
th · attack 1.23 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Fenerbahçe favourites for Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha, at 55%. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Fenerbahçe win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Slavia Praha win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.11 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.37 for Slavia Praha, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 2.11 for Fenerbahçe, 1.37 for Slavia Praha.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fenerbahçe wins; above it, Slavia Praha wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Fenerbahçe goals in rows, Slavia Praha goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha?
Fenerbahçe, at 55%. The full split is Fenerbahçe 55%, draw 20%, Slavia Praha 25%.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha?
2–1, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.11 for Fenerbahçe and 1.37 for Slavia Praha.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet or Slavia Praha fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
