Wednesday 21 October · 21:00
FC Bayern München – Arsenal
FC Bayern München
3rd · attack 2.23 · defence 0.88
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.34 · defence 0.69
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for FC Bayern München – Arsenal, at 44%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, FC Bayern München win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Arsenal win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.57 goals for FC Bayern München and 1.29 for Arsenal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.57 for FC Bayern München, 1.29 for Arsenal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Bayern München wins; above it, Arsenal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
FC Bayern München goals in rows, Arsenal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Bayern München v Arsenal?
FC Bayern München, at 44%. The full split is FC Bayern München 44%, draw 24%, Arsenal 32%.
What is the most likely score in FC Bayern München v Arsenal?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Bayern München v Arsenal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.57 for FC Bayern München and 1.29 for Arsenal.
Will both teams score in FC Bayern München v Arsenal?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. FC Bayern München keep a clean sheet or Arsenal fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
