Wednesday 21 October · 18:45
Como – Manchester United
Como
7th · attack 1.38 · defence 0.82
Manchester United
13th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.11
Our model makes Como favourites for Como – Manchester United, at 43%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Como win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Manchester United win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.38 goals for Como and 1.15 for Manchester United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.38 for Como, 1.15 for Manchester United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Como wins; above it, Manchester United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Como goals in rows, Manchester United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Como v Manchester United?
Como, at 43%. The full split is Como 43%, draw 26%, Manchester United 31%.
What is the most likely score in Como v Manchester United?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como v Manchester United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.38 for Como and 1.15 for Manchester United.
Will both teams score in Como v Manchester United?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Como keep a clean sheet or Manchester United fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
