Wednesday 21 October · 21:00
Club Brugge – Lens
Club Brugge
2nd · attack 1.80 · defence 0.81
Lens
10th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Club Brugge favourites for Club Brugge – Lens, at 49%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Club Brugge win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Lens win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.83 goals for Club Brugge and 1.38 for Lens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.83 for Club Brugge, 1.38 for Lens.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Club Brugge wins; above it, Lens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Club Brugge goals in rows, Lens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Club Brugge v Lens?
Club Brugge, at 49%. The full split is Club Brugge 49%, draw 22%, Lens 29%.
What is the most likely score in Club Brugge v Lens?
1–1, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Club Brugge v Lens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.83 for Club Brugge and 1.38 for Lens.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge v Lens?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Club Brugge keep a clean sheet or Lens fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
