Wednesday 21 October · 21:00
Aston Villa – Viking
Aston Villa
16th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.19
Viking
1st · attack 1.65 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for Aston Villa – Viking, at 62%. Kick-off 21 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aston Villa win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Viking win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.10 goals for Aston Villa and 1.05 for Viking, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.10 for Aston Villa, 1.05 for Viking.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aston Villa wins; above it, Viking wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Aston Villa goals in rows, Viking goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aston Villa v Viking?
Aston Villa, at 62%. The full split is Aston Villa 62%, draw 20%, Viking 19%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa v Viking?
2–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Viking?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.10 for Aston Villa and 1.05 for Viking.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa v Viking?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet or Viking fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
