La LigaSaturday, October 17 · 04:15 PM · 9th matchday
Villarreal – Elche
Villarreal
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.04
Elche
18th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Villarreal favourites for Villarreal – Elche, at 68%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 04:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Villarreal win 68% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Elche win 15%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.52 goals for Villarreal and 1.13 for Elche, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.52 for Villarreal, 1.13 for Elche.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Villarreal wins; above it, Elche wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Villarreal goals in rows, Elche goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Villarreal v Elche?
Villarreal, at 68%. The full split is Villarreal 68%, draw 17%, Elche 15%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal v Elche?
2–1, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Elche?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.52 for Villarreal and 1.13 for Elche.
Will both teams score in Villarreal v Elche?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Villarreal keep a clean sheet or Elche fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.