La LigaSaturday, October 24 · 06:30 PM · 10th matchday
Valencia – Villarreal
Valencia
19th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.08
Villarreal
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Villarreal favourites for Valencia – Villarreal, at 44%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Valencia win 31% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Villarreal win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.33 goals for Valencia and 1.62 for Villarreal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.33 for Valencia, 1.62 for Villarreal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Valencia wins; above it, Villarreal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Valencia goals in rows, Villarreal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Valencia v Villarreal?
Villarreal, at 44%. The full split is Valencia 31%, draw 25%, Villarreal 44%.
What is the most likely score in Valencia v Villarreal?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Valencia v Villarreal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.33 for Valencia and 1.62 for Villarreal.
Will both teams score in Valencia v Villarreal?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Valencia keep a clean sheet or Villarreal fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.