La LigaSaturday, October 17 · 09:00 PM · 9th matchday
Valencia – Athletic Club
Valencia
19th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.08
Athletic Club
10th · attack 1.04 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Valencia favourites for Valencia – Athletic Club, at 36% — but only 1.4% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Valencia win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Athletic Club win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.15 goals for Valencia and 1.12 for Athletic Club, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.15 for Valencia, 1.12 for Athletic Club.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Valencia wins; above it, Athletic Club wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Valencia goals in rows, Athletic Club goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Valencia v Athletic Club?
Valencia, at 36%. The full split is Valencia 36%, draw 29%, Athletic Club 35%.
What is the most likely score in Valencia v Athletic Club?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Valencia v Athletic Club?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.15 for Valencia and 1.12 for Athletic Club.
Will both teams score in Valencia v Athletic Club?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Valencia keep a clean sheet or Athletic Club fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.