La LigaMonday, October 26 · 09:00 PM · 10th matchday
Sevilla – Osasuna
Sevilla
5th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.09
Osasuna
13th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Sevilla favourites for Sevilla – Osasuna, at 47%. Kick-off October 26, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sevilla win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Osasuna win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.49 goals for Sevilla and 1.04 for Osasuna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.49 for Sevilla, 1.04 for Osasuna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sevilla wins; above it, Osasuna wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Sevilla goals in rows, Osasuna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sevilla v Osasuna?
Sevilla, at 47%. The full split is Sevilla 47%, draw 26%, Osasuna 26%.
What is the most likely score in Sevilla v Osasuna?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sevilla v Osasuna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.49 for Sevilla and 1.04 for Osasuna.
Will both teams score in Sevilla v Osasuna?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sevilla keep a clean sheet or Osasuna fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.