La LigaSunday, October 11 · 04:15 PM · 8th matchday
Real Sociedad – Deportivo A Coruña
Real Sociedad
8th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.08
Deportivo A Coruña
7th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Real Sociedad – Deportivo A Coruña, at 49%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 04:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Deportivo A Coruña win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.12 for Deportivo A Coruña, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.63 for Real Sociedad, 1.12 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad wins; above it, Deportivo A Coruña wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad goals in rows, Deportivo A Coruña goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad v Deportivo A Coruña?
Real Sociedad, at 49%. The full split is Real Sociedad 49%, draw 25%, Deportivo A Coruña 26%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad v Deportivo A Coruña?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad v Deportivo A Coruña?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for Real Sociedad and 1.12 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad v Deportivo A Coruña?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet or Deportivo A Coruña fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.