La LigaSaturday, October 10 · 09:00 PM · 8th matchday
Real Madrid – Villarreal
Real Madrid
4th · attack 1.72 · defence 0.75
Villarreal
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Real Madrid – Villarreal, at 66%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Real Madrid win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Villarreal win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.42 goals for Real Madrid and 1.14 for Villarreal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.42 for Real Madrid, 1.14 for Villarreal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Madrid wins; above it, Villarreal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Real Madrid goals in rows, Villarreal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Madrid v Villarreal?
Real Madrid, at 66%. The full split is Real Madrid 66%, draw 18%, Villarreal 16%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid v Villarreal?
2–1, which comes up in 9.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v Villarreal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 2.42 for Real Madrid and 1.14 for Villarreal.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid v Villarreal?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet or Villarreal fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.