La LigaSunday, October 11 · 06:30 PM · 8th matchday
Real Betis – Osasuna
Real Betis
3rd · attack 1.22 · defence 0.93
Osasuna
13th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Real Betis favourites for Real Betis – Osasuna, at 58%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Real Betis win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Osasuna win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for Real Betis and 0.89 for Osasuna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.77 for Real Betis, 0.89 for Osasuna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Betis wins; above it, Osasuna wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Real Betis goals in rows, Osasuna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Betis v Osasuna?
Real Betis, at 58%. The full split is Real Betis 58%, draw 23%, Osasuna 19%.
What is the most likely score in Real Betis v Osasuna?
1–0, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Betis v Osasuna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for Real Betis and 0.89 for Osasuna.
Will both teams score in Real Betis v Osasuna?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Real Betis keep a clean sheet or Osasuna fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.