La LigaSaturday, October 17 · 06:30 PM · 9th matchday
Real Betis – FC Barcelona
Real Betis
3rd · attack 1.22 · defence 0.93
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.11 · defence 0.79
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for Real Betis – FC Barcelona, at 53%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Real Betis win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and FC Barcelona win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Real Betis and 1.97 for FC Barcelona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.29 for Real Betis, 1.97 for FC Barcelona.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Betis wins; above it, FC Barcelona wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Betis goals in rows, FC Barcelona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Betis v FC Barcelona?
FC Barcelona, at 53%. The full split is Real Betis 25%, draw 22%, FC Barcelona 53%.
What is the most likely score in Real Betis v FC Barcelona?
1–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Betis v FC Barcelona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Real Betis and 1.97 for FC Barcelona.
Will both teams score in Real Betis v FC Barcelona?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Real Betis keep a clean sheet or FC Barcelona fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.