La LigaSaturday, October 24 · 02:00 PM · 10th matchday
Rayo Vallecano – Elche
Rayo Vallecano
12th · attack 0.93 · defence 0.99
Elche
18th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano favourites for Rayo Vallecano – Elche, at 48%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 02:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Rayo Vallecano win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Elche win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.07 for Elche, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.54 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.07 for Elche.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rayo Vallecano wins; above it, Elche wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Rayo Vallecano goals in rows, Elche goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rayo Vallecano v Elche?
Rayo Vallecano, at 48%. The full split is Rayo Vallecano 48%, draw 26%, Elche 26%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano v Elche?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano v Elche?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.07 for Elche.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano v Elche?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet or Elche fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.