La LigaSunday, October 11 · 09:00 PM · 8th matchday
Racing Santander – Valencia
Racing Santander
16th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.96
Valencia
19th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Valencia favourites for Racing Santander – Valencia, at 41% — but only 4.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Racing Santander win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Valencia win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.74 goals for Racing Santander and 1.86 for Valencia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.74 for Racing Santander, 1.86 for Valencia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Racing Santander wins; above it, Valencia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Racing Santander goals in rows, Valencia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Racing Santander v Valencia?
Valencia, at 41%. The full split is Racing Santander 37%, draw 22%, Valencia 41%.
What is the most likely score in Racing Santander v Valencia?
1–1, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Racing Santander v Valencia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 1.74 for Racing Santander and 1.86 for Valencia.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander v Valencia?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. Racing Santander keep a clean sheet or Valencia fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.