La LigaSaturday, October 24 · 04:15 PM · 10th matchday
Racing Santander – Espanyol
Racing Santander
16th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.96
Espanyol
15th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Espanyol favourites for Racing Santander – Espanyol, at 42%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 04:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Racing Santander win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Espanyol win 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 8.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for Racing Santander and 1.90 for Espanyol, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time and both teams scoring 71%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.77 for Racing Santander, 1.90 for Espanyol.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Racing Santander wins; above it, Espanyol wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Racing Santander goals in rows, Espanyol goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Racing Santander v Espanyol?
Espanyol, at 42%. The full split is Racing Santander 36%, draw 22%, Espanyol 42%.
What is the most likely score in Racing Santander v Espanyol?
1–1, which comes up in 8.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Racing Santander v Espanyol?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for Racing Santander and 1.90 for Espanyol.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander v Espanyol?
Both teams score in 71% of simulations. Racing Santander keep a clean sheet or Espanyol fail to score in the remaining 29%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.