La LigaSunday, October 18 · 02:00 PM · 9th matchday
Osasuna – Racing Santander
Osasuna
13th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.08
Racing Santander
16th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.96
Our model makes Osasuna favourites for Osasuna – Racing Santander, at 64%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 02:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Osasuna win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Racing Santander win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.53 goals for Osasuna and 1.30 for Racing Santander, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.53 for Osasuna, 1.30 for Racing Santander.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Osasuna wins; above it, Racing Santander wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Osasuna goals in rows, Racing Santander goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Osasuna v Racing Santander?
Osasuna, at 64%. The full split is Osasuna 64%, draw 18%, Racing Santander 18%.
What is the most likely score in Osasuna v Racing Santander?
2–1, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Osasuna v Racing Santander?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.53 for Osasuna and 1.30 for Racing Santander.
Will both teams score in Osasuna v Racing Santander?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. Osasuna keep a clean sheet or Racing Santander fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.