La LigaSunday, October 18 · 06:30 PM · 9th matchday
Málaga – Real Sociedad
Málaga
20th · attack 0.54 · defence 1.19
Real Sociedad
8th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Málaga – Real Sociedad, at 50%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Málaga win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Real Sociedad win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 15.8% of simulations.
We expect 0.79 goals for Málaga and 1.34 for Real Sociedad, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time and both teams scoring 40%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.79 for Málaga, 1.34 for Real Sociedad.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Málaga wins; above it, Real Sociedad wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Málaga goals in rows, Real Sociedad goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Málaga v Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad, at 50%. The full split is Málaga 22%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad 50%.
What is the most likely score in Málaga v Real Sociedad?
0–1, which comes up in 15.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Málaga v Real Sociedad?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 63% of the time. Expected goals are 0.79 for Málaga and 1.34 for Real Sociedad.
Will both teams score in Málaga v Real Sociedad?
Both teams score in 40% of simulations. Málaga keep a clean sheet or Real Sociedad fail to score in the remaining 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.