La LigaFriday, October 9 · 09:00 PM · 8th matchday
Málaga – Espanyol
Málaga
20th · attack 0.54 · defence 1.19
Espanyol
15th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Espanyol favourites for Málaga – Espanyol, at 44%. Kick-off October 9, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Málaga win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Espanyol win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 16.3% of simulations.
We expect 0.80 goals for Málaga and 1.15 for Espanyol, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 31% of the time and both teams scoring 38%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.80 for Málaga, 1.15 for Espanyol.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Málaga wins; above it, Espanyol wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Málaga goals in rows, Espanyol goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Málaga v Espanyol?
Espanyol, at 44%. The full split is Málaga 25%, draw 31%, Espanyol 44%.
What is the most likely score in Málaga v Espanyol?
0–1, which comes up in 16.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Málaga v Espanyol?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 31% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 58% of the time. Expected goals are 0.80 for Málaga and 1.15 for Espanyol.
Will both teams score in Málaga v Espanyol?
Both teams score in 38% of simulations. Málaga keep a clean sheet or Espanyol fail to score in the remaining 62%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.