La LigaMonday, October 12 · 09:00 PM · 8th matchday
Levante – Sevilla
Levante
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.23
Sevilla
5th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Levante favourites for Levante – Sevilla, at 45%. Kick-off October 12, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Levante win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Sevilla win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.59 goals for Levante and 1.27 for Sevilla, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.59 for Levante, 1.27 for Sevilla.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Levante wins; above it, Sevilla wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Levante goals in rows, Sevilla goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Levante v Sevilla?
Levante, at 45%. The full split is Levante 45%, draw 25%, Sevilla 30%.
What is the most likely score in Levante v Sevilla?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante v Sevilla?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.59 for Levante and 1.27 for Sevilla.
Will both teams score in Levante v Sevilla?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Levante keep a clean sheet or Sevilla fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.