La LigaWednesday, October 21 · 08:00 PM · 6th matchday
Levante – Athletic Club
Levante
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.23
Athletic Club
10th · attack 1.04 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Levante favourites for Levante – Athletic Club, at 38% — but only 1.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 21, 2026, 08:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Levante win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Athletic Club win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for Levante and 1.28 for Athletic Club, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.32 for Levante, 1.28 for Athletic Club.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Levante wins; above it, Athletic Club wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Levante goals in rows, Athletic Club goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Levante v Athletic Club?
Levante, at 38%. The full split is Levante 38%, draw 27%, Athletic Club 36%.
What is the most likely score in Levante v Athletic Club?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante v Athletic Club?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for Levante and 1.28 for Athletic Club.
Will both teams score in Levante v Athletic Club?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Levante keep a clean sheet or Athletic Club fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.