La LigaMonday, October 19 · 09:00 PM · 9th matchday
Getafe – Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
11th · attack 0.70 · defence 0.82
Rayo Vallecano
12th · attack 0.93 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Getafe favourites for Getafe – Rayo Vallecano, at 38% — but only 3.8% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 19, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Getafe win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 34% and Rayo Vallecano win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–0, in 18.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.94 goals for Getafe and 0.76 for Rayo Vallecano, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 24% of the time and both teams scoring 32%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.94 for Getafe, 0.76 for Rayo Vallecano.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Getafe wins; above it, Rayo Vallecano wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Getafe goals in rows, Rayo Vallecano goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Getafe v Rayo Vallecano?
Getafe, at 38%. The full split is Getafe 38%, draw 34%, Rayo Vallecano 28%.
What is the most likely score in Getafe v Rayo Vallecano?
0–0, which comes up in 18.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Getafe v Rayo Vallecano?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 24% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 51% of the time. Expected goals are 0.94 for Getafe and 0.76 for Rayo Vallecano.
Will both teams score in Getafe v Rayo Vallecano?
Both teams score in 32% of simulations. Getafe keep a clean sheet or Rayo Vallecano fail to score in the remaining 68%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.