La LigaSunday, October 25 · 09:00 PM · 10th matchday
FC Barcelona – Real Madrid
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.11 · defence 0.79
Real Madrid
4th · attack 1.72 · defence 0.75
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for FC Barcelona – Real Madrid, at 55%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Barcelona win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Real Madrid win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.13 goals for FC Barcelona and 1.35 for Real Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.13 for FC Barcelona, 1.35 for Real Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Barcelona wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
FC Barcelona goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Barcelona v Real Madrid?
FC Barcelona, at 55%. The full split is FC Barcelona 55%, draw 21%, Real Madrid 24%.
What is the most likely score in FC Barcelona v Real Madrid?
2–1, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Barcelona v Real Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.13 for FC Barcelona and 1.35 for Real Madrid.
Will both teams score in FC Barcelona v Real Madrid?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet or Real Madrid fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.