La LigaSunday, October 11 · 02:00 PM · 8th matchday
Elche – Celta de Vigo
Elche
18th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.24
Celta de Vigo
14th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Elche favourites for Elche – Celta de Vigo, at 39% — but only 3.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 02:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Elche win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Celta de Vigo win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.46 goals for Elche and 1.39 for Celta de Vigo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.46 for Elche, 1.39 for Celta de Vigo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elche wins; above it, Celta de Vigo wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Elche goals in rows, Celta de Vigo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elche v Celta de Vigo?
Elche, at 39%. The full split is Elche 39%, draw 25%, Celta de Vigo 36%.
What is the most likely score in Elche v Celta de Vigo?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elche v Celta de Vigo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.46 for Elche and 1.39 for Celta de Vigo.
Will both teams score in Elche v Celta de Vigo?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Elche keep a clean sheet or Celta de Vigo fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.