La LigaFriday, October 23 · 09:00 PM · 10th matchday
Deportivo Alavés – Málaga
Deportivo Alavés
6th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.01
Málaga
20th · attack 0.54 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Deportivo Alavés favourites for Deportivo Alavés – Málaga, at 61%. Kick-off October 23, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Deportivo Alavés win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Málaga win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 19.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Deportivo Alavés and 0.55 for Málaga, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time and both teams scoring 33%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for Deportivo Alavés, 0.55 for Málaga.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Deportivo Alavés wins; above it, Málaga wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Deportivo Alavés goals in rows, Málaga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Deportivo Alavés v Málaga?
Deportivo Alavés, at 61%. The full split is Deportivo Alavés 61%, draw 26%, Málaga 13%.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Alavés v Málaga?
1–0, which comes up in 19.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo Alavés v Málaga?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 61% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Deportivo Alavés and 0.55 for Málaga.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Alavés v Málaga?
Both teams score in 33% of simulations. Deportivo Alavés keep a clean sheet or Málaga fail to score in the remaining 67%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.