La LigaSunday, October 18 · 04:15 PM · 9th matchday
Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés
Celta de Vigo
14th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.01
Deportivo Alavés
6th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Celta de Vigo favourites for Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés, at 50%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 04:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Celta de Vigo win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Deportivo Alavés win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Celta de Vigo and 0.96 for Deportivo Alavés, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for Celta de Vigo, 0.96 for Deportivo Alavés.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celta de Vigo wins; above it, Deportivo Alavés wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Celta de Vigo goals in rows, Deportivo Alavés goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés?
Celta de Vigo, at 50%. The full split is Celta de Vigo 50%, draw 26%, Deportivo Alavés 24%.
What is the most likely score in Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés?
1–0, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Celta de Vigo and 0.96 for Deportivo Alavés.
Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo v Deportivo Alavés?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Celta de Vigo keep a clean sheet or Deportivo Alavés fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.