La LigaSaturday, October 24 · 09:00 PM · 10th matchday
Atlético de Madrid – Deportivo A Coruña
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.46 · defence 0.82
Deportivo A Coruña
7th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites for Atlético de Madrid – Deportivo A Coruña, at 66%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Atlético de Madrid win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Deportivo A Coruña win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.11 goals for Atlético de Madrid and 0.85 for Deportivo A Coruña, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.11 for Atlético de Madrid, 0.85 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atlético de Madrid wins; above it, Deportivo A Coruña wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Atlético de Madrid goals in rows, Deportivo A Coruña goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atlético de Madrid v Deportivo A Coruña?
Atlético de Madrid, at 66%. The full split is Atlético de Madrid 66%, draw 20%, Deportivo A Coruña 14%.
What is the most likely score in Atlético de Madrid v Deportivo A Coruña?
2–0, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atlético de Madrid v Deportivo A Coruña?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 2.11 for Atlético de Madrid and 0.85 for Deportivo A Coruña.
Will both teams score in Atlético de Madrid v Deportivo A Coruña?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Atlético de Madrid keep a clean sheet or Deportivo A Coruña fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.