La LigaSunday, October 25 · 02:00 PM · 10th matchday
Athletic Club – Getafe
Athletic Club
10th · attack 1.04 · defence 0.90
Getafe
11th · attack 0.70 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Athletic Club favourites for Athletic Club – Getafe, at 48%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 02:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Athletic Club win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 32% and Getafe win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 19.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.14 goals for Athletic Club and 0.63 for Getafe, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 26% of the time and both teams scoring 32%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.14 for Athletic Club, 0.63 for Getafe.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Athletic Club wins; above it, Getafe wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Athletic Club goals in rows, Getafe goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Athletic Club v Getafe?
Athletic Club, at 48%. The full split is Athletic Club 48%, draw 32%, Getafe 20%.
What is the most likely score in Athletic Club v Getafe?
1–0, which comes up in 19.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Athletic Club v Getafe?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 26% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 53% of the time. Expected goals are 1.14 for Athletic Club and 0.63 for Getafe.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club v Getafe?
Both teams score in 32% of simulations. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet or Getafe fail to score in the remaining 68%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.