Thursday 22 October · 21:00
Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
Viktoria Plzeň
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.20
Levski Sofia
th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.31
Our model makes Viktoria Plzeň favourites for Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia, at 58%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Viktoria Plzeň win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Levski Sofia win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.78 goals for Viktoria Plzeň and 0.92 for Levski Sofia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.78 for Viktoria Plzeň, 0.92 for Levski Sofia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Viktoria Plzeň wins; above it, Levski Sofia wins.
| Viktoria Plzeň \ Levski Sofia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Viktoria Plzeň goals in rows, Levski Sofia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Viktoria Plzeň v Levski Sofia?
Viktoria Plzeň, at 58%. The full split is Viktoria Plzeň 58%, draw 22%, Levski Sofia 20%.
What is the most likely score in Viktoria Plzeň v Levski Sofia?
1–0, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Viktoria Plzeň v Levski Sofia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.78 for Viktoria Plzeň and 0.92 for Levski Sofia.
Will both teams score in Viktoria Plzeň v Levski Sofia?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Viktoria Plzeň keep a clean sheet or Levski Sofia fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
