Thursday 26 November · 21:00
TSG Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz
TSG Hoffenheim
9th · attack 1.25 · defence 1.35
Sturm Graz
5th · attack 1.26 · defence 0.96
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim favourites for TSG Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz, at 71%. Kick-off 26 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, TSG Hoffenheim win 71% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Sturm Graz win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 10.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.38 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 0.89 for Sturm Graz, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.38 for TSG Hoffenheim, 0.89 for Sturm Graz.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, TSG Hoffenheim wins; above it, Sturm Graz wins.
| TSG Hoffenheim \ Sturm Graz | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
TSG Hoffenheim goals in rows, Sturm Graz goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in TSG Hoffenheim v Sturm Graz?
TSG Hoffenheim, at 71%. The full split is TSG Hoffenheim 71%, draw 17%, Sturm Graz 13%.
What is the most likely score in TSG Hoffenheim v Sturm Graz?
2–0, which comes up in 10.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim v Sturm Graz?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.38 for TSG Hoffenheim and 0.89 for Sturm Graz.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim v Sturm Graz?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. TSG Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet or Sturm Graz fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
