Thursday 5 November · 21:00
Sunderland – Dinamo Zagreb
Sunderland
20th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.19
Dinamo Zagreb
th · attack 1.17 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Sunderland favourites for Sunderland – Dinamo Zagreb, at 52%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sunderland win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Dinamo Zagreb win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.50 goals for Sunderland and 0.88 for Dinamo Zagreb, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.50 for Sunderland, 0.88 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sunderland wins; above it, Dinamo Zagreb wins.
| Sunderland \ Dinamo Zagreb | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Sunderland goals in rows, Dinamo Zagreb goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb?
Sunderland, at 52%. The full split is Sunderland 52%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb 22%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb?
1–0, which comes up in 14.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.50 for Sunderland and 0.88 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Will both teams score in Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet or Dinamo Zagreb fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
