Thursday 5 November · 21:00
Sturm Graz – Celje
Sturm Graz
4th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.91
Celje
th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.90
Our model makes Sturm Graz favourites for Sturm Graz – Celje, at 63%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sturm Graz win 63% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Celje win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.03 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.92 for Celje, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.03 for Sturm Graz, 0.92 for Celje.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sturm Graz wins; above it, Celje wins.
| Sturm Graz \ Celje | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Sturm Graz goals in rows, Celje goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sturm Graz v Celje?
Sturm Graz, at 63%. The full split is Sturm Graz 63%, draw 20%, Celje 17%.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz v Celje?
1–0, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz v Celje?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 2.03 for Sturm Graz and 0.92 for Celje.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz v Celje?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet or Celje fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
