Thursday 5 November · 18:45
Real Sociedad – Olympique Lyonnais
Real Sociedad
5th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.12
Olympique Lyonnais
1st · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Real Sociedad – Olympique Lyonnais, at 42%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Olympique Lyonnais win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.75 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.59 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.75 for Real Sociedad, 1.59 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| Real Sociedad \ Olympique Lyonnais | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad v Olympique Lyonnais?
Real Sociedad, at 42%. The full split is Real Sociedad 42%, draw 22%, Olympique Lyonnais 36%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad v Olympique Lyonnais?
1–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.75 for Real Sociedad and 1.59 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
