Thursday 22 October · 21:00
Omonia Nicosia – Benfica
Omonia Nicosia
th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.06
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.95 · defence 0.66
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Omonia Nicosia – Benfica, at 62%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Omonia Nicosia win 17% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Benfica win 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 0.83 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.85 for Benfica, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.83 for Omonia Nicosia, 1.85 for Benfica.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Omonia Nicosia wins; above it, Benfica wins.
| Omonia Nicosia \ Benfica | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Omonia Nicosia goals in rows, Benfica goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Omonia Nicosia v Benfica?
Benfica, at 62%. The full split is Omonia Nicosia 17%, draw 21%, Benfica 62%.
What is the most likely score in Omonia Nicosia v Benfica?
0–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Omonia Nicosia v Benfica?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 0.83 for Omonia Nicosia and 1.85 for Benfica.
Will both teams score in Omonia Nicosia v Benfica?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Omonia Nicosia keep a clean sheet or Benfica fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
