Thursday 5 November · 18:45
NEC Nijmegen – Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
12th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.22
Omonia Nicosia
th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.06
Our model makes NEC Nijmegen favourites for NEC Nijmegen – Omonia Nicosia, at 41%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, NEC Nijmegen win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Omonia Nicosia win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.42 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.25 for Omonia Nicosia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.42 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.25 for Omonia Nicosia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, NEC Nijmegen wins; above it, Omonia Nicosia wins.
| NEC Nijmegen \ Omonia Nicosia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
NEC Nijmegen goals in rows, Omonia Nicosia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia?
NEC Nijmegen, at 41%. The full split is NEC Nijmegen 41%, draw 25%, Omonia Nicosia 34%.
What is the most likely score in NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.42 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.25 for Omonia Nicosia.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet or Omonia Nicosia fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
