Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 09:00 PM
NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia
NEC Nijmegen
11th · attack 1.32 · defence 1.22
Levski Sofia
th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.31
Our model makes NEC Nijmegen favourites for NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia, at 54%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, NEC Nijmegen win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Levski Sofia win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.80 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.10 for Levski Sofia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.80 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.10 for Levski Sofia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, NEC Nijmegen wins; above it, Levski Sofia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
NEC Nijmegen goals in rows, Levski Sofia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen, at 54%. The full split is NEC Nijmegen 54%, draw 22%, Levski Sofia 23%.
What is the most likely score in NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia?
1–1, which comes up in 10.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.80 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.10 for Levski Sofia.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet or Levski Sofia fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.