Thursday 5 November · 18:45
Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
Lillestrøm
6th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.09
Viktoria Plzeň
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Viktoria Plzeň favourites for Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň, at 43%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Lillestrøm win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Viktoria Plzeň win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.26 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.48 for Viktoria Plzeň, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.26 for Lillestrøm, 1.48 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lillestrøm wins; above it, Viktoria Plzeň wins.
| Lillestrøm \ Viktoria Plzeň | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lillestrøm goals in rows, Viktoria Plzeň goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lillestrøm v Viktoria Plzeň?
Viktoria Plzeň, at 43%. The full split is Lillestrøm 33%, draw 25%, Viktoria Plzeň 43%.
What is the most likely score in Lillestrøm v Viktoria Plzeň?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lillestrøm v Viktoria Plzeň?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.26 for Lillestrøm and 1.48 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Will both teams score in Lillestrøm v Viktoria Plzeň?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Lillestrøm keep a clean sheet or Viktoria Plzeň fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
