Thursday 26 November · 21:00
Ferencvárosi – Celje
Ferencvárosi
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.04
Celje
th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.90
Our model makes Ferencvárosi favourites for Ferencvárosi – Celje, at 75%. Kick-off 26 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Ferencvárosi win 75% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Celje win 10%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.58 goals for Ferencvárosi and 0.85 for Celje, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 2.58 for Ferencvárosi, 0.85 for Celje.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ferencvárosi wins; above it, Celje wins.
| Ferencvárosi \ Celje | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Ferencvárosi goals in rows, Celje goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ferencvárosi v Celje?
Ferencvárosi, at 75%. The full split is Ferencvárosi 75%, draw 15%, Celje 10%.
What is the most likely score in Ferencvárosi v Celje?
2–0, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ferencvárosi v Celje?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.58 for Ferencvárosi and 0.85 for Celje.
Will both teams score in Ferencvárosi v Celje?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Ferencvárosi keep a clean sheet or Celje fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
