Thursday 22 October · 18:45
Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen
Dinamo Zagreb
th · attack 1.17 · defence 0.98
NEC Nijmegen
11th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.21
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb favourites for Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen, at 62%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Dinamo Zagreb win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and NEC Nijmegen win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.10 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.05 for NEC Nijmegen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.10 for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.05 for NEC Nijmegen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Dinamo Zagreb wins; above it, NEC Nijmegen wins.
| Dinamo Zagreb \ NEC Nijmegen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Dinamo Zagreb goals in rows, NEC Nijmegen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen?
Dinamo Zagreb, at 62%. The full split is Dinamo Zagreb 62%, draw 20%, NEC Nijmegen 18%.
What is the most likely score in Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen?
2–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.10 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.05 for NEC Nijmegen.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Dinamo Zagreb keep a clean sheet or NEC Nijmegen fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
