Thursday 26 November · 18:45
Dinamo Zagreb – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dinamo Zagreb
th · attack 1.17 · defence 0.98
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for Dinamo Zagreb – Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 52%. Kick-off 26 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Dinamo Zagreb win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.23 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.84 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.23 for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.84 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Dinamo Zagreb wins; above it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
| Dinamo Zagreb \ Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Dinamo Zagreb goals in rows, Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Dinamo Zagreb v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 52%. The full split is Dinamo Zagreb 26%, draw 22%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 52%.
What is the most likely score in Dinamo Zagreb v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
1–1, which comes up in 10.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dinamo Zagreb v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.23 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.84 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Dinamo Zagreb keep a clean sheet or Bayer 04 Leverkusen fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
