Thursday 5 November · 18:45
Crystal Palace – TSG Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace
14th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.35
TSG Hoffenheim
13th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.38
Our model makes Crystal Palace favourites for Crystal Palace – TSG Hoffenheim, at 50%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Crystal Palace win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and TSG Hoffenheim win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.87 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.34 for TSG Hoffenheim, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.87 for Crystal Palace, 1.34 for TSG Hoffenheim.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Crystal Palace wins; above it, TSG Hoffenheim wins.
| Crystal Palace \ TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Crystal Palace goals in rows, TSG Hoffenheim goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim?
Crystal Palace, at 50%. The full split is Crystal Palace 50%, draw 22%, TSG Hoffenheim 28%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim?
1–1, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.87 for Crystal Palace and 1.34 for TSG Hoffenheim.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet or TSG Hoffenheim fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
